Fort Worth, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

228
FXUS64 KFWD 021200
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
600 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

...New AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog will be possible this morning across Central Texas.

- A line of strong to severe storms is expected to move across
  North and Central Texas this evening into tonight.

- Dry and breezy conditions are forecast Tuesday after the showers
  and storms move east.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 154 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Morning low clouds, along with patchy fog across Central Texas
will give way to a warm afternoon across North and Central Texas.
The ridge we had in place over the weekend will be shifting east
today, however, enough subsidence coupled with increasing
southwesterly low-level winds will drive temperatures in the mid
to upper 80s - about 15-20 degrees above seasonal average.

By the late afternoon, attention turns to a rapidly amplifying
upper trough ejecting from the Desert Southwest into the central
Plains. Strong height falls and lee cyclogenesis will tighten the
surface pressure gradient through the day, resulting in
increasingly strong southerly winds. Sustained speeds of 15-
20 mph with gusts of 25-30 mph will become common by the early
afternoon and continue through the evening hours.

With a layer of warm air aloft in place, most of North and
Central Texas should remain capped and rain-free through much of
the afternoon. The first opportunity for thunderstorm activity
will be across northwestern portions of our region late in the
afternoon as storms develop near the dryline. Initial
thunderstorm development immediately to the northwest of our
region will be the most favorable for discrete supercells given
strong deep layer shear and roughly 1500 J/kg of instability. Any
supercell during this initial stage would be capable of large
hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado.

As the sun begins to set, storm coverage is expected to increase
over our area as large-scale forcing for ascent arrives and
thunderstorms begin to organize into a broken line or clusters of
storms moving east. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary
concern as convection becomes increasingly linear. If portions of
the line acquire a northwest to southeast orientation, the low-
level shear vector may become more favorably oriented relative to
the convective line, supporting embedded rotating elements and
the potential for a brief QLCS tornado or two. Although large
hail cannot be ruled out, the main hail threat will be during the
initial thunderstorm development before storm mode becomes more
linear.

Current timing favors the main line of thunderstorms reaching the
I-35 corridor around 11pm tonight, with thunderstorms progressing
steadily east overnight. Locally heavy rain will accompany the
strongest storms, but the fast movement of the line of storms
should keep the threat for flash flooding low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 154 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

The line of thunderstorms will likely be exiting the region
around 8am Tuesday as the front continues to push southeast. A
much different weather regime will develop behind the front as
drier air surges into the region. Skies will clear from west to
east with strong pressure rises expected. This should allow for
breezy winds out of the northwest through much of Tuesday
afternoon with occasional wind gusts to near 25 mph. Temperatures
will also be cooler, generally in the lower to middle 70s.

High pressure will build into the Southern Plains Tuesday night,
allowing winds to weaken and temperatures to decrease into the
40s and lower 50s by Wednesday morning. Pleasant fall weather
will continue Wednesday with abundant sunshine, low humidity and
highs mainly in the lower and middle 70s. The remainder of the
workweek should remain largely quiet. Another weather system is
expected to cross the Plains late Thursday into Friday, but the
better moisture and forcing should remain north of our region.
The main sensible impact will be a reinforcing push of cooler air,
holding highs on Friday in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

As we approach this upcoming weekend, forecast confidence
decreases as guidance continues to diverge on the evolution of
another trough approaching the Southern Plains. For now, a mostly
dry and near-seasonal temperature forecast is favored.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Concerns: MVFR ceilings this morning in Central Texas.
Thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon and evening.

Scattered high clouds are moving across North Texas this morning,
helping to keep low clouds from developing in North Texas. As the
clouds continue to shift east, low ceilings are looking most
likely across KACT with a much lower potential in North Texas.
Given MVFR probabilities have decreased below 20% in North Texas,
the previously forecasted MVFR ceilings has been replaced with a
scattered layer of low clouds.

Any low clouds that develop this morning will quickly lift and mix
out by the afternoon. Winds will quickly pick up out of the south,
gusting to near 30 kts much of the day.

Showers and storms will develop across western OK and far western
North Texas this afternoon. This activity will grow upscale into a
line of storms and move towards the I-35 corridor through the
late afternoon and evening hours. The thunderstorm activity will
enter D10 closer to 03z and progress through the region from west
to east. Latest models have the line of storms impacting the North
Texas TAF sites between 05-08z and KACT between 08-11z. Gusty and
erratic winds are expected with the passing of the storms, along
with decreased visibility and ceilings.

The actual front will lag by a few hours, likely moving through
North Texas TAF sites closer to 09z and KACT by 11z. Gusty winds
will continue behind the front out of the northwest with gusts
between 25-30 kts.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 544 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Spotter activation may be requested late this afternoon and
evening across parts of North and Central Texas. Even if
activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous
weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    86  63  73  54 /   0  80  10   0
Waco                86  65  75  51 /   0  90  50   0
Paris               85  66  74  50 /   0  90  60   0
Denton              85  59  72  46 /  10  80   0   0
McKinney            85  62  73  49 /   0  90  20   0
Dallas              87  64  74  55 /   0  90  20   0
Terrell             86  65  74  50 /   0  90  50   0
Corsicana           86  67  75  53 /   0  90  70   0
Temple              87  66  76  52 /   0  90  60   0
Mineral Wells       85  57  72  49 /  20  80   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez